Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy have taken further steps towards developing the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which is intended to provide both countries with a next generation fighter aircraft with advanced stealth capabilities. Originating in the United Kingdom as the Tempest program, Japan joined the program in December 2022, while Italy had previously joined as a more minor partner. A meeting on November 25 of Japanese Defence Minister Minoru Koizumi, British Defence Secretary John Healey and Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto saw detailed discussions held on the program’s status and plans to keep the program on schedule. The three ministers reaffirmed their commitment to finalise the program’s first international integration contract before the end of the year, and agreed to continue “close coordination to advance the final adjustments” required to complete the agreement.
The Japanese Ministry of Defence confirmed plans to start developing an indigenous stealth fighter in February 2019, under a program which was at the time expected to rely heavily on support from the United States due to local industry’s lack of experience in the field. Like Japan, the European states involved the GCAP lack experience developing stealth fighters even at the fifth generation level, while the Eurofighter and Tornado programs which Britain and Italy had previously participated in were both widely considered to be far from competitive aircraft for their times. This contrasts with the F-35, F-15 and F-4 Japan procured from the United States, which were all world leading in their performances for their times. Even combined, the three partner countries in GCAP conduct research and development on entirely different far smaller scales than China and the United States. As Japan’s neighbour China is poised to lead the world in fielding sixth generation fighters in the early 2030s, the lack of investment in American programs, which are the only near peer competitors of the Chinese, is expected to leave the Japanese fleet increasingly far behind.
Threatening the future of the GCAP, then Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in May received a proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump to procure the F-47 sixth generation stealth fighter, which is being developed under a much larger and more ambitious program and is expected to enter service in the early-mid 2030s. The issues Japan faces if relying on the Global Combat Air Program have become increasingly apparent as development has faced growing delays, with Reuters on May 30 reporting the emergence of significant concerns in Tokyo that it was unlikely to meet its target of rolling out a fighter in 2035. Facing significant development challenges, Britain and Italy are increasingly expected to push the fighter’s service entry date into the 2040s, potentially a full decade behind the operationalisation of more capable Chinese and American sixth generation fighters. This follows a broader trend towards major delays further reducing the competitiveness European fighter development efforts, with the Future Combat Air System program being pursued by France, Germany and Spain seeing its service entry date delayed to the 2050s.