On September 19 three Russian Aerospace Forces MiG-31BM interceptors were reported by Western sources to have entered Estonian airspace, leading Italian Air Force F-35s based in the Eastern European country to be scrambled under operation Eastern Centre, with Swedish Gripen and Finnish F-18 fighters separately scrambled. The Russian combat jets reportedly entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, around 100 kilometres from Russia, and had their transponders turned off. “This is an unprecedented and brazen intrusion — clear proof of Russia’s growing aggression,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated in response, while Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Sakaliene advocated the shooting down of Russian aircraft for even very minor airspace violations, citing the example set by Turkey in the 2010s.
The MiG-31 is considered to have the highest combat potential within the Russian fleet for air-to-air engagements, and has been singled out in Western and Ukrainian assessments for its unique potency even when compared to newer Russian fighters such as the Su-35. This has been demonstrated repeatedly over Ukrainain skies. The MiG-31 is Russia’s only combat jet capable of engaging enemy fighters at ranges of up to 400 kilometres, with its uniquely high operating altitude and cruising speed allowing it to provide significantly more energy to R-37 missiles upon launch than the Su-35 and other combat jets can. The aircraft’s sensor suite is also assessed to be considerably more powerful than any other on Russian or NATO tactical combat jets, allowing it to engage fighter sized targets at its full range without support from airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems. The aircraft are thought to have recently begun to integrate a nuclear-tipped version of the R-37 missile, allowing one interceptor to neutralise entire formations of enemy fighters.
The latest incident occurred at a time of particularly high tensions between Russia and NATO, and eight days after the entry of approximately 20 drones into Polish airspace which Western sources have claimed were of Russian origin. Although the drones caused no damage, a Polish AIM-120 air-to-air missile launched to intercept them landed on a local building. NATO members responded by expanding fighter deployments in Eastern Europe. Tensions are expected to continue to rise as the Ukrainain Army steadily loses more ground on the frontlines, with calls across Europe mounting for more direct intervention against Russia to prevent the fast growing possibility of a collapse of the Ukrainain frontlines. Personnel from NATO member states are already widely deployed in Ukraine to engage Russian forces, with a worsening personnel crisis in Ukraine as a result of extreme casualties increasing the importance of foreign fighters, such as the Polish Volunteer Corps and American Forward Observation Group, to the war effort.