On May 9 two U.S. Navy F-18F Super Hornet fighter aircraft deploying from the aircraft carrier USS George Washington conducted a coordinated flyover of the Guyana capital Georgetown and surrounding areas, which the U.S. embassy in the country reported “builds upon our routine security cooperation and expanding bilateral defence partnership with Guyana.” The flyover was widely interpreted as a show of force aimed at neighbouring Venezuela, as the United States has strongly supported Guyana in its ongoing territorial dispute with the country. Venezuelan Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López denounced the operation by American fighters, stating:“The Bolivarian National Armed Forces vehemently reject these repeated provocations by the [U.S.] Southern Command, sponsored by the government of Guyana, which has assumed the role of a new American colony. Our Comprehensive Aerospace Defense System remains activated against any attempt to violate Venezuelan geographical space, including our [disputed] Essequibo Territory. Alerts!” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil meanwhile asserted that the flyover threatened the existing deescalation agreements between the two neighbouring states.
Relations between Venezuela and the United States have been poor since Washington was closely tied to a failed coup attempt in the country in 2002, with relations worsening considerably under the Donald Trump administration as economic sanctions and military pressure on the country were intensified. This culminated in a failed attempt to overthrow the government in Caracas by ex-U.S. Military personnel in May 2020 which was tied to American intelligence services. As tensions are expected to remain high, assessments have increasingly been made regarding the capabilities of Venezuelan forces to counter a potential attack by F-18s and other U.S. Navy assets should tensions further escalate. While Venezuela’s air force is considered by far the most capable in Latin America, and its Su-30MK2 fighters the most potent in the Americas outside the United States, with only 23 fighters in service they would face an immense numerical disadvantage against even a single U.S. Navy carrier group. Nevertheless, while the U.S. Navy would likely seek to neutralise the aircraft at their airfields before they took off, Venezuela’s ground based air defences are also by far the most capable in the region, with the S-300VM and BuK-M2 systems likely able to at least delay the destruction of airfields should a cruise missile strike be launched.
The Su-30MK2 was developed at the beginning of the 2000s to meet the requirements of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, and was closely based on the heavily customised Su-30MKK ordered by China’s air force in 1999. While it was initially anticipated that close to 100 of the aircraft would be ordered, China only acquired 24 primarily due to the development of similarly capable aircraft domestically, leading Russia to focus on exporting the class to other clients. Sales were made in the 2000s to Venezuela, Vietnam, Indonesia and Uganda, with production having ceased in 2009 as the Komolsk on Amur Aircraft Factory transitioned to production of the Su-35. The Su-30MK2 has a number of significant advantages over the F-18E/F including a far longer range and greater weapons carrying capacity, a higher operational altitude, speed and manoeuvrability and carriage of a radar over twice as large. Nevertheless, the Su-30MK2’s standing in an engagement with U.S. Navy aircraft would heavily depend on which variants of the F-18E/F are deployed, however, as the latest F-18E/F Block 3 variants carrying AN/APG-79 active electronically scanned array radars and AIM-120D and AIM-9X missiles would have significant advantages in engagements at all ranges.
While the Su-30MK2 could more than hold its own when ordered in the 2000s, a lack of new acquisitions has left the Venezuelan fleet is currently technologically over ten years behind if facing the very latest American aircraft. Training hours are also thought to favour U.S. Navy pilots, despite reports that Russian contractor pilots are providing significant support to Venezuelan air operations. Thus although Venezuela’s fighters and air defences are extremely formidable by regional standards, their ability to mount a lasting defence against the United States remains limited, leaving Venezuela in a weaker position in its current dispute. While the country’s Hugo Chavez administration had planned for the country to field a much larger and more modern fighter fleet, and stated that the Defence Ministry would purchase Su-35 fighters fuelling speculation that Venezuela would be the class’ very first export client, the president’s death in March 2013 was followed by political instability and economic downturn that prevented such ambitions from being realised.